As expected today we have a low pressure system developing over the Gulf coast, as the sub tropical and polar jet stream phase this low will move northeast tonight, the lows center is still over Louisiana yet precipitation is moving into the area
Much of the area started as a brief period of light snow/sleet but the rain snow line is rapidly moving northwest as high pressure off the coast is driving in a developing southeast wind and warmer air is streaming in aloft, and soon at the surface as well, our NW interior like NW NJ/NE PA can expect snow/sleet for a more prolonged time which could lead to minor accumulation, generally 1 inch or less and confined to areas above 1000 feet where temperatures are closest to freezing
As the storm moves north precipitation will become steadier and heavier , warm air will continue to stream into the area and all areas will be all rain in the coming hours, which will give way to a night filled with heavy rain and wind
I’m going to use the NAM as it is a short-range model and has handled the evolution of this storm surprisingly well over the past few days, it was showing the highest precipitation totals and sure enough many of the global models have trended wetter with the storm and based on radar and all the Gulf moisture the higher rainfall totals seem most likely
Here is right now as the light precipitation and onset moving in
Here is later afternoon and this evening, as the low moves north and intensifies heavier rain begins to move in and also winds begin to increase from south to north especially along the coast
The storms wind and rain will peak out between 5 am and 12 noon Wednesday , one thing to note with the wind is that with a track right over the forecast area a majority of the wind now looks to be along coastal areas of NJ/NYC/LI , these areas will be on the east side of the low with strong south and southeasterly winds in the warm sector but the rest of the area will be right along the track and with a dragged out and elongated low, and with usually light winds in the center of low pressure the winds will drastically drop off once you get west of I95 unless this takes a track farther west than expected, along the coast winds sustained 20-30 can be expected with gusts as high as 55-65 especially southern shore of LI , along I95 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40-45 then northeast of these as we get interior there will likely be a period of gusty east winds but should wind down quickly , the strongest winds for areas west of I95 will likely come as the storm passes NE with gusty west-northwest winds Wednesday night and into Thanksgiving 15-25 with gusts up to 40 area wide . Just a quick side note, temperatures will rise and rise a significant amount along coastal areas between now and Wednesday morning where many folks will wake up to mild temperatures in the 50s to even near 60 in spots, this includes much of NJ, LI,NYC,CT etc , interior areas wont warm as much and will generally be in the upper 30s to mid 40s tomorrow morning, temperatures will fall everywhere in the afternoon as the storm passes by. Going into work will be warm and humid, coming out will likely be a different story.
The latest HPC forecast shows widespread 3-4 inches of rain, I don’t think it will be this widespread, im calling for widespread 2-3 but some isolated areas will probably reach the 4 inch mark , widespread flooding isn’t expected with the recent dry spell but amounts like this could lead to localized flooding issues.
As the storm exits tomorrow evening it could end as snow for NE PA/NW NJ with little accumulation and lead to a dry, cold and windy thanksgiving with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s , a chance of scattered flurries everywhere, especially interior but mostly dry day on tap