Well we just got through the first winter storm of the season across the area with widespread accumulations of snow and ice, it bought a lot of surprises and turned my forecast upside down where Southern NJ got the most wintry impacts instead of NE PA like I thought, what happened there was the arctic high was too strong and kept cold dry air over the NYC metro though NE PA and that led to the most intense clash between the Cold air damming and warm air coming in to occur over DC-Baltimore through Southern NJ and SE PA and lead to anywhere from a 3-10 inch widespread snowfall , finally later in the day as the warm air progressed north and high pressure gave way moderate snow came into Central and Northern NJ and into NYC with a general 1-3 inches before switching over to freezing drizzle/rain where many folks saw a pretty decent ice accumulation event besides the immediate coast, surprisingly the areas expected to be impacted the most only got a very little bit in the way of snow and ice today the storm is heading out and ending as rain which is melting the snow and ice away but we wont have to wait long to get another snow pack around here as another , whiter storm is expected to strike tomorrow!
We see our first disturbance exiting east bound, much more suppressed and south than expected but another disturbance developing over the Plains will quickly head towards the coast than up the coast by tomorrow afternoon, the key here is that the SE ridge is there to allow this to turn up northeast but it is weakened and displaced so instead of turning NE towards the Great Lakes this one will ride up the coast line, this will keep the whole area on the cold side of the storm and with a cold front coming through tonight the cold air will be in place to make sure this is a mostly snow event for everyone who is impacted.
For today we will see isolated showers and drizzle linger for a little while longer before drying out later in the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s, tonight will remain cloudy for most with a few clear pockets possible with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s
By tomorrow AM it will be overcast and snow is expected to gradually over spread the area from SW to NE between late morning and mid afternoon, this will be a fast-moving system and will be out of here by Tuesday night but the AM commute could be impacted over DC/Baltimore than over NYC/PHL for the afternoon rush
Here is Tuesday afternoon and we see a nice swath of moderate to even heavy snow from DC to CT , this will be quick-moving so amounts wont be overwhelming.
NE PA – 1-3 inches of snow, 3 inches more likely in southern Poconos
NW CT through NW NJ/Lehigh Valley – 2-4 inches of snow possible higher amounts farthest south and east
NYC metro/NE/Central NJ – Widespread 3-5 inches of snow possible, I expect mostly around the 3-4 inch mark but heavy banding could push some towards 5 inch mark especially south and east
DC metro through Philadelphia metro – 3-5 inches of snow expected but isolated areas could hit 6+ inches in banding
One this system moves out the snow pack wont be going anywhere as a very cold air mass takes hold and stays in place through the weekend with highs Wednesday through Saturday in the mid 20s to lower 30s mostly and lows in the single digits to the teens for all , we are watching another storm system for the weekend which may have some wintry impacts on the forecast area as well.