Now that the long-awaited thaw is beginning lets talk about the return of what looks to be a very active and cold winter pattern in just a mere 3 days or so!
We already know this weekend is going to be much milder than the recent weeks, there’s a few flurries around today, a snow showers possible especially the farther north and west you go late tonight into early tomorrow, and Sunday may feature a few scattered showers. We will warm up into the 40s tomorrow and into the mid 40s to around 50 for Sunday which should melt much of the snow pack however the snow pack wont be gone for long so don’t enjoy your grass too much!
Sunday a cold front will march through the area but with a bit of a southeast ridge the front will stall over the Mid Atlantic, so showers Sunday will lead to falling temperatures late in the day and drying conditions, however the stalled boundary will make train tracks for a disturbance to impact the area Monday
Where exactly this front stalls will determine how much of an impact the region gets, model guidance is split with the American models showing it sliding south and the CMC/Euro showing a significant winter event for much of the region
Given the developing pattern with a trough over the west, and southeast ridge I am going with a northern solution here, either solution is very possible so this isn’t a guarantee but based on what I see I believe the region will be seeing at least a light to moderate snow event Monday below I will post the Canadian model which has been the most accurate this winter and its generally a middle road between the farthest north Euro and farthest south GFS. It’s all going to come down where Sundays front stalls out
Here we are early Monday we see the cold front has come through and most of the area is more than cold enough for snow with a fresh polar air mass moving in, meanwhile you can clearly see the storm system we are tracking too
Here we are going towards Monday afternoon, and snow is overspreading a lot of the region, there would be some mixing issues for southeastern NJ if the farther north solution sets up
Here we are Monday evening with a nice swath of moderate to possible heavy snow moving through the majority of NJ , SE PA NYC and Long Island
The key to this forecast is the location and strength of the polar high pressure to our north, if it is a bit weaker than modeled this system would end up farther north, like the European has with the heaviest snow from SE PA to northern NJ, if the high is a bit stronger than modeled here then the system gets suppressed farther south and becomes more of a southern Mid Atlantic hit and perhaps into Southern NJ, the solution posted above is again the middle road solution
Anywhere from NYC points south and west have the best shot to see accumulating snow Monday but since its not a big storm and its fast-moving, without knowing the track we can’t really determine where the heaviest snow will fall, but just keep in mind there’s potential for a widespread 2-4 or 3-6 inch snowfall possibly a bit more significant Monday, again for now mostly along and south of Interstate 80 has the best shot, we will know more details this weekend , hopefully by tomorrow so we can pinpoint this down.
We are still watching a significant storm system expected to impact Tuesday into Wednesday with a mixed bag of weather and possible significant accumulations of snow and ice as well.