A major nor’easter is on the way to the east coast, it will begin developing over the Southeast/ gulf coast early tomorrow and head up the eastern seaboard through Friday
There is a initial disturbance over the southeast that will head east and out to sea , the main disturbance is developing over the Southern Plains, it will merge with a polar disturbance diving south and lead to a rapidly intensifying low riding up the east coast
The exact track is still uncertain but it appears the low will track between the immediate coast and just west of the Benchmark , the final track will be determined tonight and I will come out with a accumulation map but for now I am sticking with a storm threat map.
The map is pretty self explanatory and just to give a general idea of possible accumulation, the pink area is could see as much as 3 inches, light blue area is expected to see 5 + inches , purple area 8+ inches and dark blue area 12+ inches. This is just my general thinking as of now and again will come out with a better more specific map as we start to nail down the track and intensity.
Snow will begin to overspread the area late Wednesday night between 12-3 am, the precipitation and storm will last 20-24 hours , precip type and details posted in map above. There will be a wind and coastal flooding threat as the storm really winds up and potentially cuts off or stalls briefly along the NJ coast, winds along the coast could gust as high as 50-60 , just away from the coast 40-50 and the rest of the interior could gust 30-40 at times, some areas will see blizzard conditions at times, especially towards the tail end of the storm as most of the area who turned to rain/mix will turn back to heavy thumping snow.
The highest volatility in the map is the light blue and especially purple zones, these areas could see more snow than forecast if we see heavy enough precip to keep it snow/ sleet with little to no rain, it also wouldn’t take much of a shift east for the 12+ zone to expand to the I95 corridor, I think it’s very possible and that’s why I’m waiting a bit longer to put out a accumulation map.