Tonight a major and powerful storm system is developing over the Plains and slowly tracking northeast towards the Great Lakes, this storm is beginning to impact our weather tonight and will make for a rather interesting afternoon tomorrow
For tonight we will have the warm front approaching from the south , with this will come periods of rain and drizzle tonight along with increasing southerly winds , tonight’s rain won’t add up to much but will be enough to speed up the snow melt and really saturate the ground even more, and will also make for a raw nasty night and morning commute.
Fog will also be a big issue , as warm and moist air overrides the cold snow pack very dense and widespread fog is expected by the morning commute, temperatures tonight will continue to fall for a bit longer into the mid 30s to low 40s before slowly rising later once the atmosphere becomes saturated.
Periods of light rain/drizzle will continue through the mid to late morning hours we could see a brief break in the rain early afternoon but the main impact of this storm won’t come until the 1-5 pm time period, as the cold front swings east a line of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms can be expected from west to east, with this line will come very gusty to possibly isolated severe winds , the highest threat of severe thunderstorm criteria will be Central NJ , SE PA points south, the remainder will be more of a heavy rain and modest wind threat with elevated thunderstorms
About 1/2 inch to 1 inch of rain is expected, most of which will fall in a very short time period with the cold front, the speed of the rain along with all the snow melt and remaining snow will lead to a flooding threat, urban flooding from blocked storm drains and stream flooding from snow melt/heavy rain, you also want to make sure your sump pump is working properly because there is just a ton of water trying to soak into the ground.
There is also potential for isolated wind damage in areas that see severe thunderstorms, wind gusts will likely briefly be 35-50 mph area wide with isolated locations seeing 60+ mph gusts with the thunderstorms.
Current weather alerts
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
309 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WILMINGTON…MORRISTOWN…FLEMINGTON…
CHERRY HILL…MOORESTOWN…MOUNT HOLLY…MEDIA…PHILADELPHIA…
HONEY BROOK…OXFORD…WEST CHESTER…KENNET SQUARE…
309 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014
…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE…NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN
NORTHERN DELAWARE…NEW CASTLE. IN NEW JERSEY…CAMDEN…
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON AND SOMERSET. IN SOUTHEAST
MONTGOMERY…LOWER BUCKS…PHILADELPHIA…UPPER BUCKS…
WESTERN CHESTER AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
* THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES…RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES…RAIN AND WIND…WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SNOW MELT
AND RUNOFF ON FRIDAY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HYDROLOGIC MODELS
INDICATE THIS RUNOFF MAY CAUSE NUMEROUS STREAMS AND RIVERS IN
THE WATCH AREA TO APPROACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. ANOTHER FACTOR
TO CONSIDER IS RIVER ICE…WHICH MAY BREAK UP AND MOVE WITH
INCREASED STREAM FLOW…ADDING TO THE FLOOD THREAT IF ICE JAMS
HAPPEN TO FORM.
* IN ADDITION TO STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING…URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED…ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW AND ICE
CLOG STORM DRAINS. DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT ON FRIDAY DUE TO
EXCESSIVE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
BASEMENT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN FALLING ON FROZEN
GROUND. IF YOUR HOME HAS A HISTORY OF BASEMENT FLOODING, MONITOR
YOUR SUMP PUMP FOR PROPER OPERATION, AND IF POSSIBLE, DIRECT
OUTSIDE WATER FLOW AWAY FROM YOUR HOME.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
317 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014
…DENSE FOG IS FORECAST TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
ACROSS THE REGION…
.AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA…SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MILD MOIST AIR ACROSS THE COLDER ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND
OVER A WIDESPREAD DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS WILL FORM WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT WILL LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT
AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
317 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014
…DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
* LOCATIONS…THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY…NEW YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
* HAZARDS…DENSE FOG
* VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING…AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
* IMPACTS…RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELING DIFFICULT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. IF DRIVING…SLOW DOWN…USE
YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS…AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF
YOU IN CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.