The reason I didn’t put out a accumulation map last night was because of exactly what happened today, the models are just split all over the place.
Our storm is currently still just off the west coast , until this storm gets on land we will likely continue to see these flip flops on model guidance but basically the forecast comes down to whether or no that storm ends up being suppressed
The polar vortex is remaining stubborn, more stubborn than the models originally had over southeast Canada and with the more stubborn polar vortex comes the suppression threat of the storm system.
I still very much expect a winter storm to hit the area but the details are still extremely blurry , we should get better data as the storm slowly moves on shore tonight for the 00z models but until then I feel very uncomfortable putting out accumulation forecasts and I find no point in putting out accumulation forecasts that have a high chance of needing to be changed drastically or putting out forecasts that have huge ranges to them. Either way whether there’s more model agreement tonight or not a snow/ice accumulation map will come out later tonight or early tomorrow.
Most of the area should still expect a significant snow/ice storm though starting Sunday afternoon as a wintry mix or maybe even rain then changing to snow and ice area wide , which will linger through Monday night. As of now the highest threat of ice will be over southeast NJ and highest threat for significant snow from NNJ CNJ NYC points southwest , there is growing consensus that areas like NW NJ and NE PA May not see the heavy snow but these are details I will attempt to work out while the 00z model suite comes out later