On Thursday I put out a post about a potential storm next week and the possible scenarios, it is now likely that a strong nor’easter will be developing over the Atlantic as we get to Tuesday and Wednesday.
The exact track and details are still highly uncertain , however yesterday afternoon and overnight runs trended more towards my thinking of a farther east track, showing more of a glancing blow to moderate hit rather than a real big all out storm, it does look like the chances are increasing that the area will be impacted
My favored model guidance remains the GFS because it shows more of what I would expect from a pattern like this but quite Frankly the overnight models all looked fairly similar
A very powerful storm will be tracking near the area , but the timing of the phase is a bit too late due to the progressive nature of the pattern with a strong and active Pacific jet knocking down the ridge out west, along with a lack of blocking, but the biggest impact is the flat ridge out west
There is still a few days for things to shift and change around , and it won’t take much a shift west to make this a much bigger deal, or much of shift east to make this a nuisance to non event but below is the current storm threat map.
While details are very sketchy still the highest impacts will likely be in the form of snow and wind for most and highest impact will likely be focused along the immediate coast, there is also potential for coastal flooding.