We are beginning to evolve into a much stormier pattern, the cold front that is starting it all up is currently slowly spreading the first wave of rainfall into the area with temperatures rapidly rising into the 50s in a SW flow, today’s rain will generally be light to moderate with some isolated brief downpours and more of a nuisance than anything with gusty wind developing this afternoon, generally 15-25 mph out of the southwest.
The main storm is beginning to develop on the southern end of the front in the form of a area of low pressure, the front will get hung up over the area and this storm will gradually intensify and pull in a ton of moisture, there will be a break in the rain and maybe even breaks in the clouds late tonight and tomorrow morning but as the storm moves north clouds and rain will quickly take over from southeast to northwest tomorrow morning into the early afternoon
There’s the storm developing over the southeast and becoming a mature low pressure by tomorrow afternoon
This is 24 hours later, it takes 24 hours for the storm to track from VA to the NJ coastal waters as the low cuts off from the jet stream , it will then proceed to very slowly drift east which will keep rain and wind from Saturday afternoon all the way through Monday morning , the peak being Saturday night through later Sunday
Winds will increase out of the northeast generally 15-25 with gusts to 40 mph Sunday , and with the low stalling off our coast and prolonged northeasterly winds minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion is likely.
Total rainfall for the system will generally range 2-4 inches area wide with 3-5 inches along the heaviest swath of rain just west of the storm track, with a dry March up to this point river flooding shouldn’t be too much of a concern but there could be small stream and flash flooding during the heaviest rain, and also make sure the sump pumps are working.
The storm will gradually clear on Monday and give way to a rather mild week with temperatures in the 50s for most of the week, there will be another storm to watch mid to late week that could bring more rain.