We had a fairly active weather pattern between mid-week last week and this past weekend, as we had that deluge of rain Wednesday and Thursday then disturbances that bough scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
We are getting into a break from the stormy pattern as Canadian high pressure takes hold from today through Wednesday night , this high pressure will bring overall dry weather, seasonably warm days and chilly nights on a northwest wind , with temperatures averaging near average for highs and below average for lows , the pattern will turn more volatile and active by the time we get to Thursday and lasting through the weekend likely
For tonight there’s the chance for isolated showers , especially for extreme southern parts of the area as a disturbance passes south, the rest of the area will see some clouds but that’s about it, skies will clear out with lows dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, tomorrow and Wednesday will bring seasonably mild highs in the 60s for most, upper 50s to low 60s NE PA , mid to upper 60s elsewhere , and lows will generally range from the mid 30s to low 40s for most of the area, with mid 40s along the immediate coast and in urban areas (Newark, Philadelphia, NYC etc) which is a bit chilly for low temperatures this time of year , the dry Canadian air will be able to cool down quickly once the sun sets but will also be able to warm up quite nicely once the sun rises. A gentle northwesterly breeze will stay pretty dominant through the period.
We can see Tuesday and Wednesday plenty of dry Canadian air over the area keeping things dry and generally seasonable with any moisture being shunted to the south and west
Starting late Wednesday night and especially by Thursday afternoon a very slow-moving warm front will try to approach from the south as a ridge tries to build over the southeast and a storm tracks well to the west, this will bring increasing clouds and eventually waves of scattered showers and thunderstorms, temperatures on Thursday will be the coolest with the rain and clouds in place with highs generally in the mid 50s to low 60s but lows will remain fairly mild with the clouds and showers with mostly mid 40s to around 50 expected.
By Thursday the warm front and associated moisture is working through the area
Temperatures beyond Thursday will be very volatile, as High pressure looks to set up over Maine it will really slow down the warm front and it will likely stall somewhere over the forecast area, north of the warm front will see temperatures struggling mostly in the 50s with scattered showers, while south of the front will see periods of clearing skies , the threat for scattered strong thunderstorms and temperatures in the 70s and maybe even a few 80s out there each day from Friday through Monday , it is likely the front will pass north of the whole area by Monday but it could be a slow process, the most likely area to remain north of the warm front will be the NYC metro points northeast , and most likely once you get up towards Connecticut, meanwhile areas of east and southeast PA including southern NJ will likely be solidly in the warm sector by Friday , New York City may not be in it until Saturday and it may very well take until Sunday or Monday for the front to make it to Connecticut depeding on that High pressure near Maine and the marine influences.
We can see here on Friday afternoon the warm front kind of settles over the New York City area
And then by Saturday it jumps north, I am a little skeptical with a quick jump north like this given the spring pattern so far and the developing pattern but regardless we can see some shallow moisture is lingering over the area through the weekend
The Sunday into Monday the associated cold front either passes through slowly or may stall with perhaps some more widespread showers and thunderstorms rather than the isolated to scattered variety, depending on how much the cold front washes out by then
The period will not be a wash out , the most likely day for steadier rain will be Thursday , with more scattered precipitation for Friday, Saturday and Sunday so just a generally unsettled weather pattern, but nothing too bad, the biggest threat in this pattern will be scattered but strong to severe thunderstorms in the warm sectored areas, overall it looks pretty similar to the type of weather we saw this past Saturday each day, but warmer , more humid and a better chance for the activity to be strong.
Monday the associated cold front will approach and may stall out near the area, this will keep the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms a threat through early next week as we see a battle between cool Canadian air to the northwest, a marine air mass to the north-east and a very warm to hot and tropical air mass to our south , again this will not be a washout and actually early next week could be quite pleasant at times with mild temperatures but the threat for scattered thunderstorms will be alive and well, especially in the afternoon hours each day
There may be a brief break in the showers and storms Monday night into early Tuesday but it appears a very active weather pattern is developing
And we can see by Tuesday another warm front may be approaching with more scattered showers and storms
And next week may bring along another slow-moving front with the rain chances continuing, along with a pretty volatile pattern in terms of temperatures , this whole period starting Friday will bring periods of above average warmth and humidity , which will be welcome by many but again basically more or less every day will have the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms, some days more than others depending on exactly how these frontal boundaries set up day after day. As we go on severe weather will start becoming a fairly big concern if we stay in this pattern.
Temperatures again will start moderating Thursday through Saturday, with 70s and some 80s slowly overspreading from SW to NE each day, with 70s over SE PA, SNJ and Philly starting Friday, over NNJ, NYC and NE PA Saturday then spreading throughout the rest of the area Sunday and Monday, temperatures will mostly be in the 70s through much of next week with some warmer days in the mix.
I do think the theme of a trough as far west as modeled will be a temporary thing as the Pacific pattern reloads and I would expect that the trough will shift eastward in the longer range heading towards next weekend and suppress the southeast riding a bit more, but it does appear the summer pattern is beginning to develop, which I will write a more detailed blog on in a bit, along with a official summer forecast coming to a theatre near you soon (: