A stormy pattern is developing really for much of the US today, all this storminess will begin to settle over the eastern US over the next several days and even lasting into the foreseeable future
We can see a warm front is ever so slowly approaching from the West-Southwest, this will bring increasing clouds to areas that are seeing sun and a slow increase in coverage of showers as the nigh progresses from west to east , stubborn high pressure to the northeast of the area will lead this being a slow process
While scattered showers will gradually become an increasing threat tonight the main area of rain with this warm front is currently over the Great Lakes, this will dive to the east-southeast as a ridge continues to build over the Central US but the warm front stalls over our area so scattered showers will give way to a period of steady rain for most of the area between late tonight and early Thursday afternoon, and the threat for an isolated thunderstorm as well, temperatures will be stuck in the 50s to low 60s for most tomorrow as ahead of the warm front we see an easterly flow , but Southwest sections once you get south and west of Philadelphia will begin to really feel the warmth tomorrow cranking in from the southwest as the ridging ever so slowly builds northeast
Friday the warm front will settle over the NYC area or Central NJ , so scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be a threat, but a wash out is not expected as any steadier rain should end by later Thursday night , it will be a volatile day in terms of temperatures across the area as southern NJ , SE and much of eastern PA points south and west will be in the warm sector, with highs in the 70s expected and even some lower 80s possible the farther southwest one goes, this is where the best chance for thunderstorms will be too , meanwhile in the NYC area points northeast will still be along or north of this front with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overcast skies and scattered showers.
Friday night into Saturday most of the area should become warm sectored as high pressure over New England gives way, the warm front will be able to jump north, there will be areas of clearing skies and the whole area will be under threat for isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms some of which could be strong , the best chance for activity will be the farther west you go , as you will get closer to the cold front, and a lot of the area may remain dry during the day Saturday with temperatures in the mid 7os to low 80s for most! Overall a decent day is expected but watch the skies for those pesky isolated thunderstorms
The problem areas in terms of temperatures will be Long Island, barrier Islands of NJ and perhaps southern New England, Long Island/extreme coastal NJ will likely have a marine influence from southwesterly wind so highs may be stuck in the 60s or rise into the low 70s before falling to an afternoon sea breeze (highest threat over LI , lowest threat for the NJ coast) , and southern New England may not be quite totally warm sectored yet so for CT I expect highs in the 70s over SW parts of the state but perhaps only upper 50s to mid 60s over NE parts of the state
For late Saturday late afternoon and night-time the showers and storms may become a bit more widespread as a cold front tries to get closer to the area , still generally scattered in nature and the best chance for widespread activity should stay just west of the area but some increased coverage is expected, and again storms that do develop could be strong with gusty winds and very heavy rain , they may also be slow-moving which could lead to isolated flash flooding , but some areas may not be hit with anything at all too.
Sunday the same general theme looks to continue, mostly cloudy to party cloudy skies, very mild temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, some humidity and the threat for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, although I expect more in the way of isolated activity Sunday as the cold front dissipates to our west and most areas could very well be dry for Mothers Day. Southern New England should be totally warm sectored by Sunday with 70s and some 80s spreading up north east
Both highs and lows will be well above normal Friday night through Sunday night , where again highs will be in the 70s to low 80s for most and lows only falling into the mid 50s to low 60s under influence of clouds and southwesterly winds.
Above are frames for Saturday and Sunday, we can see that while showers and thunderstorms will be a threat, it will be a scattered threat and overall really not too bad of a weekend is expected and much of it will be salvageable, with the best day being Sunday for Mothers Day , just keep the umbrella handy and an eye to the sky for rapidly changing weather conditions should one of these pesky thunderstorms hit your area , and with the warm humid air some could get a little feisty. It will feel somewhat summer like too!
Early next week , Monday and maybe into Tuesday a bit looks mostly dry , with the cold front stalling out and fizzing to our west, ridging and a southwest flow will continue to dominate the east coast with mild conditions continuing, with a washed out boundary to the west and a few disturbances I can’t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm but most if not all will remain dry, but should a isolated thunderstorm form on Monday it could get strong and again be quite slow-moving so if you’re unlucky enough to get under a shower or storm it could last a while and lead to rapidly changing weather , otherwise partly cloudy skies, mild, overall dry and somewhat humid conditions are expected.
Highs on Monday could be the warmest yet with widespread upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s , besides along the immediate coast and Long Island where afternoon sea breezes are possible but even these areas should be pleasantly warm in the upper 60s to mid 70s , if a sea breeze fails to form mid to upper 70s will be likely.
Tuesday the next storm system may begin to approach , so increasing clouds and perhaps a bit of a change in winds from the east will lower temperatures just a bit with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
An associated warm front with low pressure developing towards the Plains looks to bring increasing showers by Tuesday afternoon
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a threat Wednesday as the warm front passes north, and a very slow-moving cold front approaches from the west, Thursday could be fairly dry as the warm front goes well north and the cold front is still well west but isolated thunderstorms can’t be ruled out
By Thursday night or Friday we could see a potent and very slow-moving cold front pass through with widespread , perhaps long-lasting heavy rainfall and thunderstorms , rainfall may be enhanced by waves of low pressure developing along this front too , quite a bit of rain is possible next week, especially mid-week and beyond but for now this is more of a storm “threat” and a lot of skepticism more so than expectancies for now.
This front should clear the area by Saturday, giving way to that pattern change I addressed in the Long range post on Monday with a trough re establishing itself over the east after a period of Southeast ridging from late this week through much of next week.
One thing that is fairly certain is that for most part highs in the 70s to low 80s are expected through the week next week. lows will remain in the mid 50s to low 60s followed by potentially much cooler but drier conditions by the weekend.