As we are in the midst of the first true hot spell of the summer season I’m sure the heat lovers are in thier glory wondering how long it will last while the heat haters are begging for it to be over already, I’m going to touch up on the summer forecast and explain what to expect in the coming days and weeks
Right now we are in a pattern where there’s a split flow in the western US and a fairly impressive heat ridge centered over the Southeast US , don’t get used to this though it will be very short lived. We see a trough over the northwest Atlantic which has been there all spring and is a piece of breaking this pattern down
Our El Niño continues to gradually develop and with the PDO being positive this heat spell is more of a relaxation of the weather pattern more so than a pattern change
Over the next few days a ridge will build back over the Eastern Pacific and Western US, A dominant dip in the jet stream will develop over the Great Lakes and Northeast in response to this combined with that persistent trough over the Northwest Atlantic.
The pattern break down will start Thursday with a backdoor cold front coming from the trough over the NW Atlantic, this will beat down the heat ridge over the SE
This type of pattern will also bring in frequent trains of disturbances with frequent storm chances
Meanwhile the changes in the Pacific will lead to more of a northwesterly flow , and with the El Niño continuing to develop along with warm PDO phases this will become the dominant weather pattern in the coming weeks
Meanwhile with the El Niño comes a active sub tropical jet which will lead to a lot of disturbances and low pressure systems passing over or nearby the area with frequent rain and storm chances.
Between the trough in the jet stream over the Great Lakes and northeast and the persistent trough over the NW Atlantic sending down back door cold fronts, the summer forecast for slightly below to below average temperatures and above average precipitation appears to be on track so far as this will bring much cooler air in and this type of pattern will keep and heat short lived in 1-3 day periods.