Another pattern relaxation is taking hold similar to what we saw earlier in September which will bring near to above normal temperatures over the next 5-8 days , with this it looks like the fall forecast I issued for September temperature wise should work out with the month likely ending 1-3 degrees above normal , however signals are pointing to things turning cooler than normal and stormy as we head into early October
Earlier in the month we were in phases 3–4 and neutral which are warm phases , then we went into phases 8-1 which bough much cooler conditions for the majority of the month so far but now it has gone back neutral and we have passed the 7 day lag, and a warm pattern is returning, however as we head into phase 7 , El nino slowly gets strong and the PDO remains positive , a much cooler pattern will quickly return by the 3-5th of October.
For now a trough is near the west coast in response to the changes in the Pacific but as a trough returns to the Aleutians next week the algnment will change back to the way its dominantly been since last winter/
We can see the pattern this weekend into early in the week the flow is from WSW responsible for transporting the warmth in
By next weekend a complete turn around comes along with strong polar air masses returning to the eastern US, I believe October will be quite similar to September, a warm start ( although not nearly as above normal as September) then dominantly below average through the bulk of the month , I do think October will bring a return to a relatively wet pattern too after a pretty dry pattern over the past 60 days, as the sub tropical jet ramps up and we start getting more intense thermal gradients with these strong cold fronts , I also believe coastal storms will be a constant theme through the month with these thermal gradients of strong polar air masses coming in from the northwest and warm tropical air to the east.
Slightly below normal temperatures
Near to slightly above normal precipitation
The going forecast for October from the Autumn forecast: