This article will be used for live coverage updates of the impending storm system, check back periodically to see new updates and again feel free to ask questions or comment!
3:20 PM: New NAM short range model guidance shows the potential this storm has
3:00 PM Newst snowfall forecast and final snowfall forecast! Be careful tonight and tomorrow everyone!!
2:45 PM: BTW states of emergenicies for NY and NJ, stay off the roads from late afternoon onward!
2:45: A new snowfall forecast will be coming out in a little while, not too many changes but some areas have to go down few inches others have to come up a few inches
2:40 PM : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/wv-animated.gif , on water vapor we can see this, the darker blues heading NW towards the coast indicate the storm is rapidly getting its act together, and basically where those darker blues are heading is where the heaviest snow will occur, this includes eastern NJ NYC LI points north and east
This lifting as it moves towards the coast will lead to a increase in intensiy and coverage of the snow and by 4-6 PM it will start becoming down right dangerous to be driving
2:30 PM : http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes . the coastal low is starting to form over the Carolina coastal waters, leading to more intense lifting heading into the coast line, much of the area is now under steady moderate snow and windy conditions
2:30 PM : Well the blizzard of 2015 is well underway! Sorry about the lack of updates , had 1/2 day of work!
10:25: Next model run comes out 10:30 PM will update after that then it's bed time, long days coming Monday and Tuesday!
10:20: However if you are in and EAST of NYC reguard less your in for a very big storm with widespread 18+ inch amounts and blizzard conditions
10:17 PM:,General idea is periods of light snow and snow showers occur through monday afternoon with a widespread 1-3 inches, then as the low goes off the coast it intensifies and throws a ton of moisture in towards the area, leading to heavy snowfall tomorrow night, especially east of the Delaware river , whether it's historic or more of a run of the mill snowstorm for NYC west is still in question
10:15 PM: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes … Radar shows light snows breaking out pretty fast with even some modest pockets, could see some light accumulations by morning
9:30 PM: We are back online! Latest short range models suggest a bit of a farther east track which leads to very heavy snow east of NYC still but in and west of NYC is more of a typical 6-12/8-14 inch snowstorm
7:45 PM: The next portion of live coverage begins at 845-9 PM to watch the short range models!
7:43 PM: That’s why I put out a rather aggressive snowfall forecast, this is the going forecast
7:40 PM: The euro appears to have the best handle with intensity of the disturbance
7:32 PM: In these situations what you have to do is look at what’s currently going on and what the model is showing, and the model that seems to fit the current observations is the one that likely represents best what the storm will do
7:30 PM: And Finally there’s the Euro that ABSOLUTLEY pummels the entire area from NE PA to the NJ coast to Connecticut with 12 to as much as 30-36 inches
7:29 PM: Then we have the NAM short range which shows a moderate to heavy snowstorm for all east of the Delaware with 16-20+from eastern and coastal NJ points east , a drastic gradient westward but still 6-12 for the rest of NJ and extreme eastern PA
7:25 PM: As of now our weather models are all over the place with this storm system, we have the GFS which has a nice storm but is more of a typical moderate to heavy event and mostly confined to coastal NJ points northeast with a general 8-14 inches, then a drastic gradient downward to only a few inches once one gets to the Delaware River