With summer begining officially in 3 days, ive been studying patterns over the last few weeks and am going to put out a Summer 2015 forecast
Most of the spring featured dry conditions, starting off below normal then trending to have one of the warmest Mays on record, however weve seen changes to stormier conditions and much wetter conditions for very late May and June
The main driver of the weather pattern this summer looks to be El nino or El Nino like conditions in the Pacific
El Nino is a phenomenon of warmer than normal temperatures acoss the tropical Pacific, it typically leads to a very active patttern across a good portion of the US as it enahnaces the sub tropical jet stream
For the northern tier of the country , heat ridge complexes developing over the south are leading to the sub tropical jet stream being forced northward, this means plenty of storm systems coming into the west coast or from the Plains tracking between the Great Lakes and Northeast, and also leads to a battle zone with very hot conditions across much of the southern tier of the nation and cooler Canadian high pressure systems trying to push southward which enhances the risk for stormy conditions and generally above normal rainfall, one such heat ridge is developing and locking in over the southeast which puts the Mid Atlantic and Northeast in this battle zone
For our area this means volatile temperature schemes, when ridging over the southeast is strong, it will push very warm humid air into our area , with the threat for strong thunderstorms as we sit in the northern edges of this heat ridge that looks to lock in, when its a bit weaker and farther south cooler than normal temperatures will prevail, however i dont see this ridge backing down to the point than dry Canadian air takes over for long periods of time but rather a back and forth battle that leads to rain or storm chances being abundant
Heres my general thinking of the summer pattern for the nation, an active storm track for the northern tier of the nation including our area with volatile temperatures with the summer ending near to slightly below normal , a consiistent heat ridge complex over the southeast with lead to very hot and generally dry conditions there, a bit stormier in the Plains where storm track will occasionally go through then a general theme of continued hot and dry conditions
To focus on our area speicifcally, I expecrt June to end with near normal temperatures to slightly above normal and above to locally well above normal precipitation , July I believe will follow a similar type pf theme with big swings in temperature and a lot of storminess with rainfall above to well above normal, of course with thunderstorms some areas will get missed and could become quite dry at times but the area as a whole i believe will be very wet this summer, July I expect temperatures to be near normal to slightly above normal . Come August I expect to see a change to more of a trough over the east with cooler than normal temperatures and conditions stormy but more bouts of nice cool dry canaddian air masses as well with August being below normal in terms of temperature and drier than June and July. One thing that will be consitent for much of the summer is humidity levels will likely be high with all the rain and storm chances particularly the remainder of June and July .