Autumn 2014 Forecast


 

*****  THIS FORECAST IS VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 1st 2014 THROUGH DECEMBER 1st 2014*****

 

Meteorological fall is right around the corner and starts Monday September 1st so with that here is the official Autumn 2014 Forecast!

The fall will be starting off much different than the majority of this summer , as a brief shift in the weather pattern in the Pacific is beginning to send in disturbances and troughs into the western US , and this is beginning to correlate to a ridge dominating the east , I expect this to last through at least mid September if not for much of September and possibly into early October as the summer pattern continues to break down slowly

September forecast :

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With warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic I expect a dominant negative NAO to take hold, this may help to cool things down a bit the second half of September with back door fronts and occasional marine influences, later in the fall this may help enhance some storminess

However, with a warm neutral phase in the Pacific with a weak El Niño attempting to develop along with very warm sea surface temperatures near the Gulf of Alaska I believe this will just be a relaxation in the pattern and one that will begin to break down during the latter part of September or early October and a dominant trough will shift farther east towards the center of the country and towards the Great Lakes, occasionally coming east towards the Northeast , rather than linger around the Rockies and portions of the western US

For our area this means a temperature roller coaster with potential for stormy conditions on the eastern side of the trough

October Forecast

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November Forecast

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For November I expect an early winter like pattern to take over for the Great Lakes and Northeast , a very amped up pattern with a ridge developing out west and a deep trough over the eastern US and a potentially very stormy pattern as the Sub tropical jet stream gets going due to a developing weak El Niño

So overall I expect September to be a warm month for the forecast area, it will start off very warm for the first half then the warmth breaks down a bit for the second half with the month ending 2-4 degrees above normal

October will feature ups and downs in temperature , ending near normal and stormy conditions with above normal rainfall and finally I expect a chilly and Stormy November with the autumn as a whole ending near normal temperature wise and above normal precipitation wise

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