Model Guidance


Meteorologists use these weather models to help them forecast the weather, they are not always right and accurate  but do give hints to how the weather patterns and storms may pan out.

These models are best to use when there is a storm 1-5 days out, they help determine the  track, precipitation amounts and axis of heaviest precipitation as well as determine whether there will be rain, snow, sleet and everything in between.

There are 4 different suites of model runs, the 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z models, the 00z and 12z of which are the more reliable as they have new data fed into them, 06z and 18z are less reliable as they run on older data, these suites come out 6 hours of each other

00z runs are night-time/early morning runs , 06z are early morning runs , 12z are late morning/early afternoon runs and 18z are late afternoon/early evening model runs

 

GFS

12z GFS Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

 

00z GFS Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html

 

18z GFS Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avnloop.html

 

06z GFS Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html

 

NAM

00Z NAM Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/wrfloop.html

 

06Z NAM Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html

 

12Z NAM Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html

 

18 NAM Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_18z/wrfloop.html

 

 

ECMWF

00z Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

 

12z Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

 

CMC

00Z Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

 

12Z Model Run

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

 

 

 

GFS- Global Forecast System

This is an American model system that covers the whole globe, it runs out to 384 hours or about 15 days, most reliable within 5 days

 00z – Begins running 11:30 pm usually finishes around 12:30 AM during spring  and summer, during fall and winter when we jump back 1 hour  it begins 10:30 PM and is finished around 11:30 PM

06z – Begins running 5:30 AM , usually finished around 6:30 AM during spring (after daylight savings day), during fall and winter when we jump back 1 hour it begins at 4:30 AM daily usually finished around 5:30 AM

12z – Begins running 11:30 AM , finished around 12:30 PM during spring and summer , during fall and winter when we jump back 1 jour it starts 10:30 AM and finishes around 11:30 AM

18z- Begins running 5:30 AM, finished around 6:30 AM during spring and summer , during fall and winter when we jump back 1 hour it begins 4:30 pm and ends arond 5:30 PM

 

NAM – North American Model

This is a weather model that only covers north America, it is a short-range model with high-resolution that allows its precipitation forecasts to be more accurate, it runs out to 84 hours or 3.5 days but is really only reliable within 36 hours an even then its still sketchy, definitley not the best model to use unless its within 18-24 hours , but is usually very good and pinpointing areas of heaviest precipatation within 24 hours

00Z- Begins running 9:45 PM  finishes around 10:30 PM, 1 hour earlier during fall and winter ( 8:45-9:30 PM)

06Z- Begins 3:45 AM finishes around 4:30 AM, 1 hour earlier during fall and winter (2:45 – 3:30 AM)

12Z – Begins 9:45 AM finishes around 10:30 AM, 1 hour earlier during fall and winter (8:45-9:30 AM )

18z – Begins 3:45 PM finishes around 4:30 PM , 1 hour earlier during fall and winter (2:45-3:30PM)

 

ECMWF- European Model

This model covers the whole globe, it runs out to 240 hours or 10 days, it  only comes out twice a day, durng the 00z suite and 12z suite, this is typically the most reliable of all the models

00Z- Begins 1:45 AM , finishes around 3:00 AM, 1 hour earlier during fall and winter (12:45-2:00 AM)

12z- Begins 1:45 PM , finishes around 3:oo PM, 1 hour earlier during spring and winter (12:45-2 :00 PM)

 

CMC – Canadian Model

This is another global model, and also only comes out during the 00z and 12z model suites, the 00z model runs out to 240 hours or 10 days and the 12z model runs out to 180 hours or 6 1/2 days , this model not too long ago was not very good but recently had a huge upgrade and has since improved immensely

00Z – Begins 12:30 AM , ends 1:30 AM , 1 hour earlier during fall and winter (11:30 PM-12:30 AM)

12z – Begins 12:30 PM , ends 1:30 PM ,  1 hour earlier during fall and winter (11:30 AM – 12:30 PM)

 

If you have any questions on what anything the models are showing or anything about the models just comment under this post or any of my posts.

 

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