The somewhat active pattern we have been in this month will continue as we track a potential noreaster or at least a series of coastal storm systems between Saturday and next week
The next 2-3 days will be dry with seasonably warm temperatures, today being a bit below normal in the 60s f0r most, tomorrow will moderate into the upper 60s to low 70s and Friday will moderate a bit more towards the lower to mid 70s widespread, all 3 days with sunshine and nice weather conditions. Low temperatures will also stick around the averages with mid 40s to mid 50s expected
By Friday night a storm system down in the Southern Plains will begin moving northward, which will bring increasing clouds and winds turning out the east. This system will initially track towards the Ohio Valley before transferring its energy leading to redevelopment off the Delaware coastline, the low will them move northeast up the coast.
Saturday will be overcast with rain developing and moving in from the south, likely starting during the later morning hours south to the mid-late afternoon hours north with gusty northeast winds developing, the rain will become heavy especially east of the Delaware river and south of the Hudson River Valley. The heaviest rain and winds will likely be Saturday night and located over Delaware, New Jersey , NYC and Long Island. Some coastal flooding will also be possible especially along the New Jersey and Delaware coastlines. Between 1-3 inches of rain is expected for most of the area, lesser amounts the father north and west one goes.
The rain should quickly end by Sunday morning with just some lingering drizzle possible then likely drying out in the afternoon through Monday, the east wind will continue which may lead to continued cloudy skies with highs in the 60s both days
By Tuesday we have to watch another potential coastal storm that could form over the open waters of the Atlantic and be pulled back northwest towards the northeastern US which could bring more rain and wind Tuesday and Wednesday
A blocked up pattern is leading to a trough stalling out over the eastern US, which has led to the unsettled weather over the past few days. The trough will lead to low pressure development just off the coast with waves of showers and rain through Sunday. The coastal storm will make its closest approach and be at its strongest Friday into early Saturday which should prove to bring heavy steady rainfall
Tonight will be overcast with drizzle light rain and a light east wind with temps in the 40s to low 50s.
Another round of rain is likely to move in by the early morning hours of Wednesday and be on and off through the day, in between periods of rain drizzle will be possible at anytime and temperatures will be stuck in the 50s again. the rain should dwindle off to drizzle again by tomorrow night and Thursday
By Thursday low pressure will start to get its act together just off the coast with rain filling in again from the south and east especially later in the day, this storm will move north and west and hug the coast through Friday and into Saturday with rain, heavy at times and a raw east wind. A brief break on Saturday will lead to a frontal passage on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms possible, this should give way to a much quitter week next week with temperatures more towards seasonably warm, a trough could bring rain chances and a return to below normal temps by later next week
After a cold weekend, this upcoming week looks to be very spring like with temperatures well above normal, a dry start to the week will give way to stormier conditions by weeks end
A series of storng storm systems and a big trough entering the west coast will lead to a large ridge developing over the eastern and central US, this means a pattern with a southwest flow of warm Pacific/Gulf of Mexico air expanding northward throughout the eastern half of the nation especially beginning tomorrow for our neck of the woods, this pattern will be locked in throughout the whole week
Todays highs will still be on the chilly side for March standard in the upper 30s to low 40s, but tomorrow as that deep SW flow develops highs will quickly moderate into the 50s for most and a few low 60s in southern areas, lows will only fall into the 40s
Tuesday the moderation will continue with highs in the 60s for most of the area, a little cooler along the immediate coastline to as high as some lower 7os from Philadelphia points SW.
Wedensday will be the peak of the warm up as high pressure slides off the coast and leads th a Bermuda high type set up. Highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s for much of rhe area, cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coastline. The period Monday-Wednesday will be dominated by sunshine as well
Thursday a bit more unsettled weather will begin to take hold as a frontal bounry drops south and east bringing increasing clouds and showers by night time into Friday. Slightly cooler conditions as well with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s both days. A brief break in rain on Saturday will lead to another perhaps slow moving storm system by Sunday that could bring periods of rain and showers through early next week, the mild conditions however will mostly stay in place with highs in the 50s lows in the 40s.
As a strong intensifying storm system tracks west of us a warm front came through bringing in warm unstable air mass, this combined with the strong storm is leading to development of thunderstorms and a widespread severe squall line, tornado and severe thunderstorm watches are issued area wide
The first map is the tornado watches, which means conditions are favorable for formation of tornado producing thunderstorms, the threat is isolated but there, the more widespread threat is damaging winds in excess of 50 mph, 2nd map is severe thunderstorm watch for favorable conditions for formation of severe thunderstorms and damaging wind gusts. Scattered thunderstorms are developing ahead of the main line which is over PA right now moving east northeast and will swing through the area through 1 AM bringing severe weather
A storm system forming over the Southern Plains will intensify and slowly track up the western side of the Appalachians, likely tracking though Ohio and interior Northeast through Thursday, and will bring a prolonged period of unsettled weather from tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday, a track like this means mostly heavy rain but a little push of cold air tonight and tomorrow will likely lead to initial wintry mix for northern areas
Tonight will start clear with increasing clouds later on, low temperatures falling into the mid 20s to low 30s
Tomorrow the warm front with the storm will be pushing north towards the area, and thus precipitation will begin to move north as well, Central NJ points south should start as rain and remain rain through Thursday however the Northern half of NJ NYC parts of LI up through New England should have just enough cold to start as snow and sleet.
The precipitation will quickly turn to all rain for the whole area tomorrow night as the storm intensifies and south-southeasterly winds get cranking, bringing warm air in fast, there will be a lull in between the warm front and main part of the storm Wednesday morning with just drizzle and showers then as the intense storm system passes through the interior NE heavy rain and strong winds will fill in by Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, embedded thunderstorms are likely to enhance rainfall amounts and SE winds will be 15-30 mph with gusts over 50 possible in thunderstorms
Storm Impact Map:
Low pressure is forming down south and precipitation is filling in pretty rapidly, most areas have started as snow and some areas especially of south Jersey have seen quite a nice thump, warm air aloft is coming in fast but the cold air at the surface is pretty stubborn to leave leading to increasing potential for ice (sleet and freezing rain) to be more aggressive and widespread than expected before a changeover to rain begins from SE TO NW between now along the SE NJ coast and midnight in NE PA, periods of heavy rain still expected through much of tomorrow
Remainder of storm impact map
A very cold air mass is in place today, many record lows were broken this morning and temps are struggling in the single digits and teens for the remainder of the day. However as quick as it came in it will be exiting rapidly in 18-24 hrs as a storm system developing down south tracks over and west of the area
The disturbance is slowly diving SE , it will begin to pick up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, gradually fire up a low pressure system that will track up the Appalachians
As the arctic high moves offshore winds will turn southeast and bring up mild ocean air, rapidly scouring out the Arctic air in place.
However due to the amount of cold air in place there will still be enough left initially that the front end part of this system will start as snow and ice for most of the area, precipitation will slowly fill in with the approaching warm front by Monday mid morning to early afternoon starting as snow and some ice then changing to heavy rain pretty quickly from SE to NW by Monday night, rain heavy at times will continue through the day Tuesday , some areas could see very heavy rain and some flooding with temperatures rising into the 40s to around 50 degrees, all precipitation will move out Tuesday evening
Storm impact map