We have clearly shifted to a more active pattern as the area as seen 3.5 – 5 inches of rainfall over the past 10 days and more is expected tonight through tomorrow and possibly into Saturday
Last night a rather potent upper level dsturbance came through the area which triggered severe storms to our West which maintained a lot of thier stregnth moving east, although they did weaken slighty moving into the marine air-mass in place, we sill managed to get strong thunderstorms between 130 and 4 am , im sure many of you probably know that, dumping a widespread .50-1 inch
High pressure remains off the NE coast holding the warm front well west of us, it is actually stationary at this point.
The forecast area remains in a raw easterly wind and cool temperatures in the 40s to low 50s under a maratime polar airmass. The warm front will slowly creep NE today and warmer air will invade our western areas and some clearing possible, highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s west but the warm front wont cross the whole area until later tonight or early tomorow mornng so highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s expected for most of NJ besides SW , Long Island and CT with some potential clearing possible after some morning drizzle but mainlycloudy skies expected
Another disturbance will dive SE towards the forecast area late tonight triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight ad into tomorrow morning, this will be associated with the warm front attached to a low pressure system over te Great Lakes
Here is early tomorrow morning and the warm front is moving through woth some showers and storms, then some clearing is likley in the afternoon and warmth for everyone wth widespread mid 70s to low 80s as winds change more SW , combine that with a strong cold front coming east and you get the threat for some scatered thunerstorms, potentially strong to severe
Friday afternoon
Friday night
HPC SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
The forecast area is under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
Hazerdous Weather Lookout
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 342 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012
ANZ338-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-040745- NEW YORK HARBOR-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN QUEENS- 342 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS…NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 638 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-041045- NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN- SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO- OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- 638 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK…SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT THERE IS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The front will slowlypass through with continued chance of showers on Saturday before clearing up Saturday night
A cooler drier airmass will move in with temperatures around average with highs in the 60s lows in the 40s going into Sunday