Theres not much on the radar YET to talk about but we are starting to see formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms from Central PA to Northern NJ as a cold front to our west begins to clash with a warm, humid tropical air mass over te region.
So what we can expect today is mostly cloudy skies, with warm temperatures with highs in the low to upper 70s, very humid with a Southerly wind and scattered showers and storms, mainly this afternoon. I expect a broken but defined line of storms to form from Virginia through Northern NJ and Southern Upstate NY which will begin to grow and expand this afternoon while slowly drifting ESE . These storms will be very slow-moving to even stationary at times due to ridging over the east and no real wind or steering currents aloft, so while they will be scattered and not everyone will get hit, if you get under on of these cell you can count on it being long-lasting, and VERY heavy rainfall is expected with these so localized flooding will be possible as well.
Tonight with the loss of daytime heating and dynamics , everything will slowly die off, but clouds and some fog will stick around with the very humid air mass in place , lows will remain mild in the low to mid 60s
The same can be said for Thursday and Friday, the cold front will stall in East/Central PA so isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, again not everyone will get hit but those that do can expect very heavy rains, highs will be warm with mid 70s t low 80s expected and lows in the 60s. The best chance for thunderstorms all 3 days will be inland areas from DC to East PA/West NJ into North NJ and into Southern Upstate NY where you are closest to the stalled cold front but showers and storms will be a possibility all the way to the coast. Theres also an upper level disturbance spinning in the south which will move though East/Central PA , leading to enhanced chances of storms there
The good news is though, Memorial day weekend doesnt look too bad!! Temperatures will be summer like, but I do have to throw in the potential for more scattered showers and storms come Sunday afternoon and Monday
I’m going to post this again just to show the general set up expected for this weekend. That upper level disturbance down south will move north of the region by Friday night, and the ridging over the east will take over, leading to clearing skies and VERY warm to even HOT temperatures going into Saturday and Sunday
Now the winds will be out of the south in our area due to the position of the ridge, so coastal areas will not get excessively warm due to influence from the ocean, but still Saturday and Sunday highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s, which is still nice enough to go to the beach, which is obviously the most popular thing to do this weekend, its interior however which will really blast the furnace, and some areas from DC to Ohio and points south will get a legit heat wave!! These areas will see 90s Friday through Monday no problem.
For the rest of the region and forecast area, highs Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s over the NYC metro and into NE PA while the Philly metro will be in th mid to upper 80s!! And Sunday will be the warmest where the NYC area through the Lehigh Valley can expect mid to upper 80s and the Philly metro into SW NJ and SE PA can expect upper 80s to low 90s!! The core of the heat will stay to our S&W due to an upper level low over the north Atlantic which will keep the center of the ridge away.
Sunday afternoon we start watching that cold front developing over the Rockies, that will bring the chance for Thunderstorms Sunday and especially Monday, and will also crank down the heat come Monday, with partly sunny skies, highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and again, the chance for thunderstorms